Oscar Predictions 2010

I've now seen 9 of the 10 Best Picture nominees (except Avatar, natch) so I feel I can make some honest predictions. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

With 10 nominees, this category is getting harder than ever to predict. While Avatar may have "changed the way we look at movies" (blah blah blah), many folks are quick to criticize its lack of an original story (it's Pocahantas/Fern Gully/Dances with Wolves from what I've heard) and even Morgan Freeman himself called it "basically cartoons." Then there's The Hurt Locker which everyone loves but no one's seen and the last thing the Academy wants to do, especially with lots of popular films nominated, is give the big award to a movie the audience will respond with a big "huh?" That's why I think the timely, crowd-pleasing Up in the Air will sneak in and win it all.

SHOULD WIN: Up
COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
WILL WIN: Up in the Air
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: 500 Days of Summer

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Directing in four different languages from a multi-layered script in a variety of different styles should be enough for Tarantino to win his first directing Oscar, but it won't be. Cameron, though he spent a good 10 years on Avatar, already has a statuette. So I think Bigelow will make history when she becomes the first woman (out of only four ever) to win for directing.

SHOULD WIN: Quentin Tarantino
COULD WIN: Jason Reitman
WILL WIN: Kathryn Bigelow
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Though it seemed early on that Morgan Freeman would walk away easily for playing Nelson Mandela, the late surge by the incomparable Jeff Bridges will be unstoppable--and deserving.

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges
COULD WIN: George Clooney
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Matt Damon, The Informant!

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

While I love Bullock's take-no-B.S. Southern belle matron, I'm still most impressed with Sidibe. Though the Oscars will feel that she's got a lot more in her--and will reward her later in life.

SHOULD WIN: Gabourey Sidibe
COULD WIN: Meryl Streep
WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Mélanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

There's nothing more to be said. Christoph will Waltz away with this Oscar. (Yes, I'm ashamed for making that pun.)

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz
COULD WIN: No one else
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Zach Galifianakis, The Hangover

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious

In any other year, I'd give it to Anna Kendrick. But like Gabby Sidibe, she'll have her chance down the road. This year--although something tells me Farmiga could sneak in here--Mo'Nique's towering performance as a pig-feet eating ball of rage and hurt has no competition.

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Mo'Nique
COULD WIN: Vera Farmiga
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Up
COULD WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Monsters vs. Aliens

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

SHOULD & WILL WIN: The Cove
COULD WIN: Food, Inc.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Tyson

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter and Tom McCarthy, Up
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Quentin Tarantino
COULD WIN: Mark Boal
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, 500 Days of Summer

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, In the Loop
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
COULD WIN: Geoffrey Fletcher
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach, Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Almost There” from The Princess and the Frog
“Down in New Orleans” from The Princess and the Frog
“Loin de Paname” from Paris 36
“Take it All” from Nine
“The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart

SHOULD & WILL WIN: “The Weary Kind”
COULD WIN: “Almost There”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: “Stu's Song” from The Hangover

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, The Hurt Locker
Alexandre Desplat, Fantastic Mr. Fox
Michael Giacchino, Up
James Horner, Avatar
Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes

SHOULD & WILL WIN: Michael Giacchino
COULD WIN: James Horner
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

SHOULD WIN & COULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
WILL WIN: The White Ribbon
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Where the Wild Things Are

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

SHOULD WIN: District 9
COULD WIN: Star Trek
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Knowing