They're here: the Oscar nominations

"Who's nomination is that?"
"That's YOUR nomination, mama!"







Before we move on to how I did: let the ranting begin...

Of all the nominations it could have received (including Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay), how on Earth did Ruby Dee pick up the only major award for American Gangster? Considering the towering lead performance from Denzel Washington, and great supporting turns by Russell Crowe, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and even a surprising cameo by Cuba Gooding, Jr., this makes for one of the biggest Oscar blunders ever, trailing behind Singin' in the Rain's similar amount of snubs.

There were plenty of fine songs found in the movies this year, but did Enchanted really deserve THREE? This led to the snubs of any number of great tracks from Walk Hard and Music and Lyrics. Just shameful. And, due to a technicality, Jonny Greenwood's epic, haunting score for There Will Be Blood was deemed ineligible. Are the Oscars headed for Grammy-like irrelevance soon?

And, as someone pointed out here, nominations for Norbit: 1. Nominations for Zodiac: 0. That being said, however, Norbit's nomination for Best Achievement in Make-up is well-deserved.

So, now that's out of my system, here are the nominees in the major categories. Correct predictions are bolded.

BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
WHAT HAPPENED: The Academy decided they didn't have the stomach for the delightful, throat-slashing, cannibalistic musical Sweeney Todd.

BEST DIRECTOR:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
WHAT HAPPENED: Gilroy and Reitman were able to ride their films' nominations in the Best Picture category to nods for themselves.

BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
WHAT HAPPENED: For whatever reason (historical innaccuracy, too popular, a retread of Training Day) Denzel Washington's performance got the year's biggest snub. Elsewhere, the buzz that had died down about Jones's masterful performance miraculously resurrected itself, as did Mortensen's, receiving their respective films' only nominations.

BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
WHAT HAPPENED: The Academy believed, as most people do, that Blanchett can do no wrong. Thus, even though her royal sequal wasn't well-received, she was lauded again. And Linney, the Oscar equivalent of "always a bridesmaid, never a bride," scored another nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
WHAT HAPPENED: No surprises here. The most buzzed-about perfs all picked up nominations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
WHAT HAPPENED: The kiddo got the only acting nomination for Atonement. And, like last year's Best Picture winner The Departed, the least buzzed-about performer got the nomination for American Gangster.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
WHAT HAPPENED: Guess there's no love for "Savior of Comedy" Judd Apatow. But there's much more love for Ratatouille than previously believed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
WHAT HAPPENED: The Academy isn't just actors, so the heaping of praise bestowed on Into the Wild by the Screen Actors Guild translated to diddly. Thankfully, they did honor Polley's powerful adaptation of Alice Munro's short story.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
WHAT HAPPENED: The idiots figured The Simpsons Movie for a 90-minute episode and nothing more. But Surf's Up? REALLY?!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
WHAT HAPPENED: It seems if it's not about war efforts in the Middle East, healthcare and Darfur are the only topics worth being discussed, leaving out hot-button issues like abortion (Lake of Fire) and homosexuality and the church (For the Bible Tells Me So). Then again, this category (like Best Foreign Language Film) may just be too hard to ever predict.

Here's the full list of nominees:
oscars.com/nominees

Drum roll please...Kip's Oscar predictions

So it's only one week until nominations are announced. Thus, I present you with my (mostly) bulletproof predictions as to who will end up in the winners' circle, including commentary for each race. I'll post next Tuesday to see how many I got correct. On to the list:









BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
DARK HORSE: Michael Clayton
LONG SHOT: Knocked Up
THE LOWDOWN: The inexplicable backlash against American Gangster may have finally reached a fever pitch, which is a real shame. It's possible for it to make a comeback, but the Academy will really have to NOT want a musical in the final five.

BEST DIRECTOR:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
DARK HORSE: Joe Wright, Atonement
LONG SHOT: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone
THE LOWDOWN: If Atonement makes a real push to be this decade's Titanic, Burton may find himself shut out once more.

BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
DARK HORSE: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
LONG SHOT: Matt Damon, The Bourne Ultimatum
THE LOWDOWN: It'll be a tragedy akin to Gene Kelly and Tom Hanks's numerous snubs if Denzel's name isn't called, but that will open room for yet another overcrowded race, especially for the oft-overlooked Viggo Mortensen.

BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno
DARK HORSE: Amy Adams, Enchanted
LONG SHOT: Keri Russell, Waitress
THE LOWDOWN: Should the Academy decide not to honor the lead performers of Atonement, Amy Adams's glowing reviews will allow her to sneak in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
DARK HORSE: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
LONG SHOT: Andy Griffith, Waitress
THE LOWDOWN: The only real locks here are Affleck and Bardem. Hoffman will likely pick up a nod here since his other two acclaimed performances (in The Savages and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) are in the overcrowded lead actor category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
DARK HORSE: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
LONG SHOT: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
THE LOWDOWN: The Academy may only find room for one actress from Atonement, and that will go to the young'n. If that happens, Denzel's mama may pick up a nod, but don't count out Tomei, who's as good (and smokin' hot) as ever.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
DARK HORSE: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
LONG SHOT: Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg, Superbad
The screenplay categories have become more consolation prizes for movies not nominated for Best Picture, and Juno will be the only one nominated in both. That also makes this race wide open, but Oliver's script will have the hardest time to break through, given the movie's "ick" factor, even with the Writers' Guild nod.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
DARK HORSE: Christopher Hampton, Atonement
LONG SHOT: Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War
THE LOWDOWN: Vanderbilt's WGA nod gives a huge surge to one of 2007's most overlooked movies, but it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Hampton take the spot, especially if Atonement gets multiple nominations.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
DARK HORSE: Bee Movie
LONG SHOT: Beowulf
THE LOWDOWN: This category is pretty much locked up, unless some members view The Simpsons Movie as just an extended episode.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Lake of Fire
Nanking
No End in Sight
Terror's Advocate
Sicko
DARK HORSE: For the Bible Tells Me So
LONG SHOT: The Rape of Europa
THE LOWDOWN: Plenty of high-profile docs make the cut, but again popular non-fiction flicks like The King of Kong are left out.

Worst of 2007

TELEVISION:
Scarred (MTV)
Below the bottom of the barrel of MTV's reality shows lies this appalling clip show of skateboard injuries, which plays to the worst of humanity. This isn't America's Funniest Home Videos, where a simple groin hit will be recovered from in a day; this is real people getting grave injuries, and one wonders what they wouldn't do to get on television.
WARNING: GRAPHIC MATERIAL


Runner-up: National Bingo Night (ABC)
Representing the ultimate in lack of thought, this spot-filler is actually an adaptation of an Australian game show. But even more alarming is that this show was aired EVEN WHEN THE WRITERS WERE STILL WORKING. Way to go, ABC. May you be hit the hardest ratings-wise when the strike gets into full-swing.

MUSIC:
Soulja Boy - "Crank That (Soulja Boy)"
From the album SOULJABOYTELLEM.COM
From that horrible homemade steel drum intro to his incomprehensible mumbling to disgusting lines like "Superman that ho!", could any other song hold the spot as worst of the year? Tell 'em.


Runner-up: Avril Lavigne featuring Lil' Mama - "Girlfriend (Remix)"
In which the Canadian "punk" popper makes her summer smash--encouraging tweens everywhere to be homewreckers and sluts--even worse, by enlisting inexplicable critic darling and "Lip Gloss" smacker. By the way, Toni Basil wants her beat back.

FILM:
Daddy Day Camp (dir. Fred Savage)
What a pity that such a nice guy and good actor would step behind the camera for this dreck, a follow-up to the already dreadful Daddy Day Care, though it's hard to tell this is a sequel when no one from the original even bothered to show up. Worse yet, Cuba Gooding Jr. ruined the shot at redemption he earned by his great turn in American Gangster.

Runner-up: Ghost Rider (dir. Mark Steven Johnson)
Other than Sam Elliott's jovial cameo as the original Rider, there's not much to love here. From Nic Cage's sleep-walking Elvis impersonation to the utter lack of chemistry between Cage and Mendes to the completely lame supervillains, this will go down as one of the worst comic book adaptations of all-time.

Resolutions

So I usually don't make resolutions, because I usually don't keep them. But here are some that I am making for 2008, and I want you to help me make sure I keep them. Here goes:

-Work out twice a week--no excuses
-Work towards becoming the spiritual leader I'm being called to be
-Love others more
-Save more money
-Review every new movie I see on this blog, so as to improve my criticism skills

Bring it on, 2008.