15 January 2008

Drum roll please...Kip's Oscar predictions

So it's only one week until nominations are announced. Thus, I present you with my (mostly) bulletproof predictions as to who will end up in the winners' circle, including commentary for each race. I'll post next Tuesday to see how many I got correct. On to the list:

No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

DARK HORSE: Michael Clayton
LONG SHOT: Knocked Up
THE LOWDOWN: The inexplicable backlash against American Gangster may have finally reached a fever pitch, which is a real shame. It's possible for it to make a comeback, but the Academy will really have to NOT want a musical in the final five.

P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
DARK HORSE: Joe Wright, Atonement
LONG SHOT: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone
THE LOWDOWN: If Atonement makes a real push to be this decade's Titanic, Burton may find himself shut out once more.

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
DARK HORSE: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
LONG SHOT: Matt Damon, The Bourne Ultimatum
THE LOWDOWN: It'll be a tragedy akin to Gene Kelly and Tom Hanks's numerous snubs if Denzel's name isn't called, but that will open room for yet another overcrowded race, especially for the oft-overlooked Viggo Mortensen.


Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno
DARK HORSE: Amy Adams, Enchanted
LONG SHOT: Keri Russell, Waitress
THE LOWDOWN: Should the Academy decide not to honor the lead performers of Atonement, Amy Adams's glowing reviews will allow her to sneak in.

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
DARK HORSE: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
LONG SHOT: Andy Griffith, Waitress
THE LOWDOWN: The only real locks here are Affleck and Bardem. Hoffman will likely pick up a nod here since his other two acclaimed performances (in The Savages and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) are in the overcrowded lead actor category.

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
DARK HORSE: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
LONG SHOT: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
THE LOWDOWN: The Academy may only find room for one actress from Atonement, and that will go to the young'n. If that happens, Denzel's mama may pick up a nod, but don't count out Tomei, who's as good (and smokin' hot) as ever.


Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
DARK HORSE: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
LONG SHOT: Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg, Superbad
The screenplay categories have become more consolation prizes for movies not nominated for Best Picture, and Juno will be the only one nominated in both. That also makes this race wide open, but Oliver's script will have the hardest time to break through, given the movie's "ick" factor, even with the Writers' Guild nod.

P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
DARK HORSE: Christopher Hampton, Atonement
LONG SHOT: Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War
THE LOWDOWN: Vanderbilt's WGA nod gives a huge surge to one of 2007's most overlooked movies, but it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Hampton take the spot, especially if Atonement gets multiple nominations.

The Simpsons Movie

LONG SHOT: Beowulf
THE LOWDOWN: This category is pretty much locked up, unless some members view The Simpsons Movie as just an extended episode.

Lake of Fire
No End in Sight
Terror's Advocate

DARK HORSE: For the Bible Tells Me So
LONG SHOT: The Rape of Europa
THE LOWDOWN: Plenty of high-profile docs make the cut, but again popular non-fiction flicks like The King of Kong are left out.

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