Oscars: Who Will and Should Win RECAP

2007 was one of the best years for film in recent memory, which will make this year’s Oscars much harder to call than in year’s past. That being said, these are my predictions, based on industry insight and Academy trends, as well as my own feelings about how the awards will go. With that, here are the nominees and my prognosticating:

BEST PICTURE
THE NOMINEES:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
SHOULD WIN: My head says No Country, but my heart says Juno. No movie was as warm or familiar (which is not a bad thing) as this comedy.
WILL & DID WIN: No Country, ambiguous ending and all. This is another challenging masterpiece from the Coens that will be debated for years after.

BEST DIRECTOR
THE NOMINEES:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
SHOULD, WILL & DID WIN: The Coens. They're style is in every framed of the West Texas tale of greed and murder, familiar territory for sure, but still wholly original.

BEST ACTOR
THE NOMINEES:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
SHOULD WIN: As much as I admired Mortensen's performance, I don't believe it warranted a nomination if it meant Denzel getting snubbed for American Gangster, but so it goes. For me, having not seen There Will Be Blood yet, I have to go with Johnny Depp. He's been on the shortlist of best actors for quite some time, and here his menace goes full tilt, with terrific singing no less.
WILL & DID WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis. It's not even a question.

BEST ACTRESS
THE NOMINEES:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
SHOULD WIN: What a tough call. Both Christie and Page defined their movies, the former with restraint and elegance, the latter with spunk and wit. Can it be a tie?
WILL WIN: Christie. The veteran more than earned it, playing the Alzheimer's-stricken senior, but for doing it without a hint of sap. And I really can't see the Academy rewarding a performer in a foreign language film. Sorry, Marion.
DID WIN: The Academy did pick the foreign-language biopic, even though no one else had seen it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
THE NOMINEES:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
SHOULD WIN: Hoffman really stepped up to the plate and towered over two much bigger stars (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts) with his performance, but Bardem redefined the movie villain, and scared the bejeesus out of everyone in West Texas.
WILL & DID WIN: Bardem. There's talk of Holbrook eeking out a win, but the Old Man Factor really only pushes you over the edge when the frontrunner pulls something like wearing a fat suit in his next movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
THE NOMINEES:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett, who can do wrong, period.
WILL WIN: This is the toughest race to call, not just this year, but of any year I can remember in quite some time. I'll still say Blanchett, but really, I wouldn't be surprised to hear any of these names called on Sunday.
DID WIN: Swinton rode her BAFTA win to victory here, meaning no Americans won acting awards this year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE NOMINEES:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird (from a story by Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco, and Jan Pinkava), Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
SHOULD WIN: Have you heard? Juno's one of the best screenplays in recent memory. Honest to blog!
WILL & DID WIN: Diablo Cody's first script wins in a walk, home-skillet.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE NOMINEES:
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
SHOULD WIN: I'd really love to see the relatively young Polley win for not turning Away from Her into a treacly movie-of-the-week, but the Coens have been the best writers in Hollywood since, oh, Blood Simple.
WILL & DID WIN: The Coens, in a photo finish with P.T. Anderson.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
THE NOMINEES
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
SHOULD WIN: The gritty realism of No Country for Old Men.
WILL WIN: A tough call, for sure. Last year's seemed-like-a-lock Children of Men lost to the dreamlike but equally deserving Pan's Labyrinth, but Deakins' double nod is quite impressive, and the Academy will finally award the heretofor snubbed (six times!!!) Deakins.
DID WIN: Elswit's haunting, epic frames.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
THE NOMINEES:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up
SHOULD WIN: The Simpsons Movie, for starters. What? You mean the Academy picked another effing penguin movie?
WILL & DID WIN: Ratatouille. It's possible Persepolis could pull a Lives of Others-like upset, but the latest from the brilliant Brad Bird is also up for two other awards, a major accomplishment for an animated flick. About a rat, no less.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
THE NOMINEES:
"Falling Slowly" from Once
"Happy Working Song" from Enchanted
"Raise it Up" from August Rush
"So Close" from Enchanted
"That’s How You Know" from Enchanted
SHOULD WIN: Like you have to ask. Four more songs from Once could've been here, but I wish the Academy would've had at least something from Music & Lyrics or Walk Hard here, but I guess it was time to honor Disney again.
WILL & DID WIN: "Falling Slowly," unless there is no justice in the world.